What AI Researchers Say About When Superintelligence will Arrive

Oren Etzioni:

To get a more accurate assessment of the opinion of leading researchers in the field, I turned to the Fellows of the American Association for Artificial Intelligence, a group of researchers who are recognized as having made significant, sustained contributions to the field.

In early March 2016, AAAI sent out an anonymous survey on my behalf, posing the following question to 193 fellows:

“In his book, Nick Bostrom has defined Superintelligence as ‘an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills.’ When do you think we will achieve Superintelligence?”

…In essence, according to 92.5 percent of the respondents, superintelligence is beyond the foreseeable horizon.