The United States could manufacture 300,000 to 400,000 humanoid robots annually by 2030, according to a new J.P. Morgan forecast. The projection points to rising demand as businesses explore humanoid robots for manufacturing, logistics, and warehouse operations.
According to a Reuters report published on November 12, 2026, J.P. Morgan expects commercial adoption to accelerate. The bank believes the humanoid robotics industry will gradually move beyond demonstrations and expand into real workplace applications. It also forecasts annual U.S. humanoid robot production could reach approximately 1.5 million units by 2035.
Growing interest in humanoid robots reflects businesses’ efforts to automate physical tasks across existing workplaces. Improvements in robotics technology, manufacturing capacity, and operating costs could support wider adoption across industries.
J.P. Morgan Expects Annual U.S. Humanoid Robot Production to Reach 400,000 by 2030
J.P. Morgan expects U.S. humanoid robot production to grow as manufacturers increase capacity and expand commercial operations. The bank forecasts annual production could reach 300,000 to 400,000 units by 2030.
The growth is expected to continue as humanoid robots become more widely used across different industries. J.P. Morgan projects annual production could reach approximately 1.5 million units by 2035.
This forecast reflects a shift in the humanoid robotics industry from testing to commercial deployment. Companies are moving beyond demonstrations and preparing to use humanoid robots in everyday business operations.
Manufacturing plants, warehouses, and logistics centers could become major markets for humanoid robots. Businesses are considering these machines for repetitive tasks, higher productivity, and ongoing labor shortages.
Labor Shortages and Lower Costs Could Increase Humanoid Robot Demand
Labor shortages could increase demand for humanoid robots as U.S. businesses struggle to fill physically demanding positions. Several industries continue to face challenges hiring workers for repetitive tasks and labor-intensive operations.
Humanoid robots could help companies address some of these workforce challenges. Their human-like design allows them to work in facilities built for people without major structural changes.
Lower operating costs could further support the adoption of humanoid robots across different industries. As manufacturers increase production and improve robot performance, manufacturing and operating expenses could gradually decline.
J.P. Morgan expects these factors to support demand across manufacturing, warehousing, and logistics operations. However, wider adoption will depend on whether humanoid robots can perform tasks reliably and deliver clear cost savings.
Humanoid Robot Industry Shifts Toward Commercial Use
The humanoid robotics industry is gaining attention as major technology and manufacturing companies increase their investments. These companies are developing robots that use artificial intelligence, sensors, and mechanical systems to perform physical tasks.
Manufacturers are also improving robot movement, task performance, and workplace safety around human workers. These improvements could help humanoid robots move beyond demonstrations and perform more complex jobs in real workplaces.
However, several challenges could slow the large-scale adoption of humanoid robots. Manufacturers must improve reliability, lower production costs, and ensure robots work consistently in different environments.
J.P. Morgan’s forecast points to significant growth in U.S. humanoid robot manufacturing by 2030. If production targets are achieved, these machines could become more common across industrial automation and business operations.
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U.S. Humanoid Robot Manufacturers Face Production Challenges
Despite the positive growth outlook, J.P. Morgan highlighted several challenges that could slow U.S. humanoid robot production. These include hardware development, AI training data, computing resources, and limited manufacturing capacity.
According to the bank, most U.S. humanoid robot manufacturers, excluding Tesla, target annual production between 10,000 and 30,000 units. These production plans remain below the industry’s projected annual output of 300,000 to 400,000 units by 2030.
J.P. Morgan also highlighted the possibility of government support for domestic robotics manufacturing. If U.S. authorities classify imported robotics and industrial machinery as national security risks, new tariffs or trade measures could follow. Such policies could encourage companies to expand domestic manufacturing and strengthen the local robotics supply chain.
The bank identified several major companies competing in the U.S. humanoid robot market. These include Tesla’s Optimus, Agility Robotics’ Digit, Boston Dynamics’ Atlas, Figure AI’s humanoid robots, and Apptronik’s Apollo.
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Humanoid Robot Components Market Could Reach $30 Billion by 2035
Rising humanoid robot production could create new business opportunities for companies supplying essential robotics components. These components include actuators, motors, vision systems, and other technologies needed to operate humanoid robots.
J.P. Morgan expects the humanoid robot components market to approach $30 billion by 2035. The bank believes suppliers could benefit significantly as manufacturers increase production and expand their operations.
However, J.P. Morgan expects more value to shift toward robot manufacturers and platform integrators as the industry matures. This could change how companies across the humanoid robotics supply chain generate revenue.
The bank also estimates that humanoid robot costs are approaching human labor cost levels. Using robots across multiple work shifts could generate approximately $100,000 in annual savings for each customer.
